Next 3 years belong to India


By Monish Chhabra ǀ July 17, 2023

The following graph charts the last 3 cycles in India, over the last 4 decades.

The blue graph is the first cycle from 1988 to 2001, the second in orange from 2001 to 2020 and the latest in green from 2020 till now. Each cycles includes both the up and down.

The length of each cycle may differ. However, the rate at which the market grows over the full cycle is about the same in each case. 

And also, each cycle peaks and bottoms around roughly the same region, as per the statistical distribution.

Where we are now in the current green cycle is about the same level as where we were during the last two cycles at this point in time. And this is where they went up hard. 

We are currently about halfway in duration of the up phase of this cycle, and still below the mean. 

Statistics tells us that a well-managed portfolio in India could grow by at least 3-times over the next 3 years. 

What has happened over the last three years in India has been strong. What is likely to happen over the next three years is much stronger. 

Watch the cycles, and ride them well. 

This write-up is for informational purpose only. It may contain inputs from other sources, but represents only the author’s views and opinions.  It is not an offer or solicitation for any service or product. It should not be relied upon, used or construed as recommendation or advice.  This report has been prepared in good faith. No representation is made as to the accuracy of the information it contains, nor any commitment to update it.